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What is the potential that the summer weather outlook includes a shift in climate patterns in coming months?

Audio file

Participants: Rod Bain and USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.


What does summer weather potentially look like this year?

Like climatic patterns associated with El Nino, according to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.

Yet, art forecasters like Rippey saying El Nino will transition to a La Nina pattern over the summer months.

He explains, It takes a while for the atmosphere to recognize the changes in the equatorial Pacific.

So we're not expecting any imminent changes.

And in fact, if anything, we're still seeing weather patterns across the United States that are more consistent with El Nino than with La Nina.

And that's because the atmosphere has not completely spun down from the impacts of the warm water in the Pacific that peaked last December and January.

One immediate indication of the El Nino to La Nina transition underway is an active tropical system.

When you have La Nina in place, one of the most immediate and sudden impacts is that it decreases wind shear across the Atlantic Basin.

In 2024, we may not have the wind shear to tear them apart.

I'm Rod Bain reporting for the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Washington, D.C.