According to a recent report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, forecasters are predicting that the current neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean will continue through the summer of 2025.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, which affects temperature and weather worldwide, is currently stable, with no strong indication of switching to either El Niño or La Niña. This stability is expected to persist, with a greater than 50 percent chance of neutral conditions remaining through the August-October period.

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The forecasters, who are part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, analyzed various data and indices, including sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions, to make their prediction. While confidence in the short-term forecast is high, forecasters acknowledge that predicting what will happen later in the year is more challenging.

The report also notes that there is a 43 percent chance of neutral conditions persisting into the November 2025 the January 2026 period, with a 38 percent chance of La Niña developing during the same period.

Editor’s note: This article has been produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence with human review and editing.