A long-running citizen science program in Glacier National Park has observed a marked decrease in the population of mountain goats since 2008, with scientists concerned that a warming alpine climate could be detrimental to the future of the species. 

In a study published in the journal “Ecosphere” in January, researchers with Glacier National Park and the U.S. Geological Survey found from 2008 to 2019 the number of goats observed throughout the park declined by 45%. 

“As the largest non-hunted, native population in the contiguous United States, this raises concerns about native mountain goat populations at the southern extent of the range,” according to the study, which states that “climate appears to play a large role” in population shifts. 

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This latest study is the result of one of the park’s Citizen Science Programs through the Crown of the Continent Research Learning Center, which engages park visitors, students and staff to collect vast quantities of data that would otherwise be unavailable to researchers and resource managers at the park. 

Among the ongoing citizen science programs are projects monitoring Glacier’s common loon population and golden eagle migrationpatterns; collecting pika pellets; and conducting mountain goat counts. 

Started in 2008 and 2009, the mountain goat project was established to provide resource managers in Glacier with baseline data to monitor for suspected population declines that had been seen in areas outside the park. Due to the alpine-adapted creature’s rugged habitat, collecting reliable data is a near-impossible task for small groups of scientists. 

But utilizing a large group of trained volunteers, along with biologists, allows researchers to gather data from 37 sites across the park each year throughout the summer. In the dataset stretching more than a decade, staff and volunteers conducted 1,961 total surveys.

The researchers found that the median number of goats observed per site dropped from around 77 in 2008 to 42 in 2019, with a 28% decline observed from 2010-2019. 

The population appears to have stabilized around 2015 “at relatively low numbers.”

According to the study, declines were the largest in the northeast portion of the park, with the single largest decline seen in a site near Logan Pass — decreasing from an average of 134 to 22 goats. 

Eight sites had increased goat sightings, but only two of those were found to be statistically significant. 

Population changes correlated with several weather- and climate-related variables, including snowpack, early summer precipitation, and early summer temperatures.

The decline in the park’s namesake feature is also a factor in goat survival. 

Mountain goats, like other high-altitude adjusted species, utilize snow patches and glacier fields to reduce heat stress, which can affect reproductive hormones. 

“Declines in permanent snow, interactions between snow characteristics and temperature, and projected increase in the frequencies of drought raise concerns” for the park’s goat populations, the study states, especially as climate projections predict increasing temperatures, which will further reduce snow cover. 

There is also some indication that with less snow cover, goats are being pushed to lower elevations to find forest cover to cool off, which could make them more susceptible to predators, according to the study. 

However, some changing climate patterns could benefit mountain goats. Increased spring temperatures were found to support population growth, with early season moisture also increasing food quality and quantity — which helps newborn goats survive. In some cases, less snow during the winter could also lead to fewer avalanches, a highly documented cause of mountain goat mortality. 

But warming weather overall is considered to have a net negative impact on alpine species, according to multiple scientific studies. 

A 2014 study on chamois goats in the Italian Alps showed the species was shrinking in size in response to warming climates while a 2025 review of more than 250 studies on mountain goats concluded that the species’ specialized adaptations for life in cold, mountainous environments makes them particularly vulnerable to changes in climate and weather. 

The recent Glacier study also notes that the national park has seen an increase of roughly 1 million annual visitors over the course of the study years. While researchers did not evaluate that specific impact, they wrote that increasing human recreation could influence habitat loss, lead to goats avoiding high-quality habitat, and increase stress in the animals. 

The study emphasizes the importance of citizen scientists and specifically highlights the benefits of retaining volunteers over time — experienced goat peepers tended to observe more goats.

As with much of the scientific literature, the study raises additional questions, specifically about how additional stressors correlate to population trends in mountain goats, but the overall decline is not up for debate. 

“At the low numbers we documented, it will also be more difficult to detect further declines and better identifying decline causes could take years,” the authors wrote. “While numbers may have stabilized at relatively low levels, increased attention to this vulnerable population in the forms of both research and management may be needed to ensure the persistence of this population and meet the NPS mission to preserve and protect resources for the enjoyment of future generations.”