New Mexico wildfire predictions ramp up well ahead of summer
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It has been unseasonably warm across much of the Southwest this spring and weather experts said wildfire threats will likely start earlier.
AccuWeather predicted fires in 2026 will burn between 5.5 million and 8 million acres across the country. Drought, above-average temperatures and below-average snowpack will set the stage for a growing fire danger as the summer progresses.
Virginia Iglesias, research scientist and director of Earth Lab at Colorado University-Boulder, said the effects are already obvious.
"For us living in the Western U.S., we look out of the window, in previous years we would probably have snow right now. Now we have flowers," Iglesias explained. "All plants are starting early this year and the soil is pretty dry."
Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, including Black and Indigenous communities and women, who often have fewer resources to adapt to extreme weather, heat and pollution. Systemic inequities also are to blame, including habitation in high-risk zones, inferior housing infrastructure and lack of insurance.
Jeremy Hess, professor of global health and emergency medicine at the University of Washington, said if possible, people should already be preparing to limit exposure to wildfire smoke, which can significantly damage the heart and lungs.
"Smoke is an irritant, and so it will cause people to feel short of breath, even if they are healthy when they're exposed to this," Hess emphasized. "If they have asthma or emphysema, they are more at risk. If it's severe enough, it can be life-threatening."
From 1980 to 2024, there were 38 confirmed weather or climate disaster events in New Mexico, including 12 wildfires. Losses exceeded a billion dollars each, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. AccuWeather predicted the broadest and most persistent wildfire risk in 2026 is expected from Arizona and New Mexico, with the most affected areas being Utah, Nevada, Idaho, western Montana and parts of the Northwest.
