Surging oil prices associated with instability in the Middle East threaten to exacerbate tight margins for Kansas farmers by driving up the cost of fuel and fertilizer, a Kansas State University economist says.

Gregg Ibendahl, who focuses on agricultural production and finance, said higher energy prices ripple through the economy and prove detrimental for farmers consuming diesel and fertilizer. These negative market forces surfaced to strike the bottom line of U.S. producers just as farmers readied fields for planting.

Disruptions in the Middle East associated with a U.S. war with Iran ordered by President Donald Trump led to restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried vast amounts of oil and liquified natural gas. The military conflict interrupted flow of those commodities and pushed U.S. oil prices to the highest level since 2022.

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Ibendahl said prices for energy-linked inputs wouldn’t return to previous levels quickly, even if geopolitical tensions eased.

“Oil prices and diesel prices won’t come down as fast as they went up, even if the war stops tomorrow,” he said. “It will likely take a few months to clear.”

He said a $90-per-barrel market for oil would add more than $1 per gallon to the cost of fuel for U.S. farmers. The average Kansas grain farm spent $30,000 on fuel in 2025. If oil prices held at the $90 level, he said, the higher cost of fuel could add $10,000 to total expenses.

Disturbances in supply chains prompted a 10 percent increase in fertilizer prices, Ibendahl said. The cost of anhydrous ammonia, a concentrated fertilizer relying on natural gas as a feedstock, could exceed $1,000 per ton. That would translate into $12,000 in additional costs for the average grain farm, Ibendahl said.

If farmers responded to fertilizer cost spikes by reducing application, the result could be lower yields of corn or soybeans.

Ibendahl said the influence of diesel prices was immediate, while consequence of fertilizer pricing could be delayed for farmers who previously secured that input for the current growing season. Higher fertilizer prices might not fully materialize for some farmers until later in 2026, he said.

Disruption to the oil market, and the effect on farmers, occurred amid projections that net farm income in Kansas would decline in 2026 after an increase in 2025 driven by high cattle prices and federal government disaster payments.

On March 27, U.S. Representative Tracey Mann, the Kansas Republican representing the rural 1st District, attended a celebration of U.S. agriculture at the White House. It was hosted by Trump and Brooke Rollins, secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“Really appreciate the president’s willingness to highlight agriculture, his support for the American farmer, all of our ag producers,” Mann said. “We know in the Big First how important that is, but it’s important that we continue to advocate that here in Washington. Really glad that President Trump is hearing us and they continue to support our farmers and ranchers. Best days are yet to come.”